Seven questions to ask yourself before executing your product idea

There are four aspects that needs to be covered when we think of a new product idea.

Product Strategy

  • What problem is my product solving?
  • How is it different from the existing products in the market? What is its USP?
  • How does it fit into my existing product line (assuming this is not a start-up)? This is very important thought as there is always a danger of cannibalizing our own product that may be generating good revenue. At times, we might have to evaluate the amount of revenue your latest product will generate compared to its predecessor.

Customer Strategy

  • Who is my customer?
  • Why is he going to buy from me? What’s the value he gets?
  • How do we reach them? Can we reach them through Internet? (Internet is revolutionizing the way we do our business today)
  • How do we retain them?

Market Strategy

  • How does it affect my existing product line? Is it going to replace them? Does it cannibalize them?
  • Is this idea a reaction to my suppliers’, customers’ or competitors’ move?
  • Does it increase my sales revenue or my customer base?
  • Is the idea catering to a new market? If yes, we might want to look at many aspects, but predominantly barriers to entry and exit, players, size, growth, life-cycle of the economy and industry, impact of technology (internet), …
  • Who are the players in the market and their market share? How would the competitor respond to it?

Financing

  • How would you finance the product launch, if we get a ‘Go-ahead’?
  • What happens if the economy sours? How will I pay the debt, if I’m raising funds for it?

We need to understand the supply and demand aspect of the game. Many a times, we invest in new things only to realize that it’s a “desire” (and not a need) in the market. We approach the prospect and try to force sell them by continuous education/campaign. That is when the cost goes up. I suggest we do a demand analysis with a strong perspective on competitors move in such an area, and then try to find out why the other players haven’t done anything with it.

Questions I’d ask myself are:

  • Is there sufficient demand for such a product idea?
  • What’s the supply?
  • Why haven’t others identified it yet?
  • If they have, what are they doing with it?
  • Have they tried to cater to the need?
  • If they failed, what’s the reason behind it?
  • Are there any substitutes for it?
  • What are the barriers to entry and exit?

This post originally appeared in one of my blogs in public CXO forums: 

https://www.linkedin.com/groups/Seven-questions-ask-yourself-before-50556.S.263673928?view=&srchtype=discussedNews&gid=50556&item=263673928&type=member&trk=eml-anet_dig-b_pd-ttl-cn&fromEmail=&ut=3uETgoUjty-5Q1


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Copyright Nitin Garg | All Rights Reserved

How would you add an extra $10m in revenue in the next year?

First, we need to understand the external factors – economy and industry. The questions that we need to ask ourselves are:

  • What’s the size of the market?
  • What’s its growth rate?
  • Which stage of the life-cycle is it in?
  • Performance for the last 2 years (it would be very difficult for a start-up to take a leap unless we have ample amount of “qualified” pipeline to generate this revenue). I suggest we do a comprehensive analysis and do a Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-constrained (S.M.A.R.T.) projection to avoid disappointment and hence the cost of the effort (which can be huge).

Growth Strategy

  • Increase distribution channels
  • Diversify product line
  • Increase product and services
  • Acquire competitors (this needs cost-benefit analysis and due diligence of M&A targets)

Increase Sales Revenue

  • Increase price. This has to be done with caution and need smart approach to pass it on the customer. We need to anticipate the competitors’ response and check the substitutes available in the market. Otherwise, the customers/prospects will run away from you! 😉
  • Increase per unit sale
  • Increase volume (get more buyers, increase distribution channels, hire sales force, …)
  • Create a seasonal sale, if applicable
  • Invest in major marketing (one that has proven to be fruitful). Digital marketing is most cost-effective and efficient for larger target audience. We can hire an advertising agency for this with KRA like number of leads and conversion rate for the pay-off.

There might require certain changes to the pricing strategy as well as compared to your competitors’ price


This post originally appeared in one of my blogs in public CXO forums:

https://www.linkedin.com/groupItem?view=&gid=50556&type=member&item=264797155&commentID=155864030&report.success=8ULbKyXO6NDvmoK7o030UNOYGZKrvdhBhypZ_w8EpQrrQI-BBjkmxwkEOwBjLE28YyDIxcyEO7_TA_giuRN#commentID_155864030


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Copyright Nitin Garg | All Rights Reserved

How do you capitalize an operating lease quickly?

To answer this question, let’s consider an example. Assume following is an annual statement of a public company. “At December 31, 2000, the Company was lessee at 7,000 restaurant locations through ground leases (the Company leases the land and the Company or franchisee owns the building) and at 6,000 restaurant locations through improved leases (the Company leases land and buildings). Lease terms for most restaurants are generally for 20 years and, in many cases, provide for rent escalations and renewal options, with certain leases providing purchase options. For most locations, the Company is obligated for the related occupancy costs including property taxes, insurance and maintenance. In addition, the Company is lessee under non-cancelable leases covering offices and vehicles. Future minimum payments required under existing operating leases with initial terms of one year or more are:

($ millions) Restaurant Total
2001 $748.3 $811.6
2002 735.3 790.4
2003 705.8 752.2
2004 676.2 715.1
2005 623.5 640.0
Thereafter 6,018.7 6,239.7
Total minimum payments $9,507.8 $9,967.3

Rent expense was (in millions): 2000–$886.4; 1999–$796.3; 1998–$723.0. These amounts included percent rents in excess of minimum rents (in millions): 2000–$133.0; 1999–$117.1; 1998–$116.7. “ To capitalize these operating leases, we need to discount the future lease payments to arrive at the present value (PV). Here are the steps:

  1. Cash flow for the FY2000 – 2005 are already given. So, we proceed to Step 2
  2. Divide the “Thereafter” amount ($6,240M) by FY2005 amount ($640M) to determine the number of years remaining, at FY05 level, for the lease payments.

 6,240/640 = 10 years remaining

Put $624M (=$6,240M/10) for the additional 10 years after the lease amount of FY2005 for the PV calculation.

  1. Consider its long-term borrowing rate (6%) to match the long-term assets.
  1. Calculate the Present Value(PV) of this cash flow.
Year Payment ($millions)
2000 886.4
2001 811.6
2002 790.4
2003 752.2
2004 715.1
2005 640.0
2006 624.0
2007 624.0
2008 624.0
2009 624.0
2010 624.0
2011 624.0
2012 624.0
2013 624.0
2014 624.0
2015 624.0
PV @6% 6,500.0

Now, let’s adjust the financial statements. Capitalizing operating leases does not affect net income; it just replaces the lease expense with interest expense and depreciation

  1. $6.5B is added to the ‘Long-term Asset’ of the Balance Sheet as “Assets Under Capitalized Leases”. A similar amount is also added to the ‘Liabilities’ as “Capitalized Lease Obligations”. Now, this represents as if the company had purchased the assets with borrowed money as of 1/1/2000.
  2. Reverse the existing entry ‘Lease Expense’ currently in the financials. The company paid $886.4M in FY2000.
  3. Calculate the PV of FY2000 interest payment.

$6.5B x 6% = $390M

Since the company paid $886.4M in FY2000, the difference amount of $496M (=$886.4M – $390M) is added to the depreciation, resulting in no change in the net income value.


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Competitive Strategy: Five forces of Michael Porter

In 1979, Michael Eugene Porter, the Bishop William Lawrence University Professor, Harvard Business School, submitted an article on “How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy” that revolutionized the strategy field. In his article, Porter highlighted how the five forces of competition affect the profitability of organizations and hence, the industry. In this article, I present his thoughts in an easy-to-comprehend manner such that readers can understand and apply the concept while formulating their corporate strategy. Read about Michael E. Porter here.

(1) Customers: The customers who are relatively large, the buyers who purchase in large volumes and the buyers who are few, enjoy more bargaining/negotiating leverage as compared to the industry participants, especially when the industry is price sensitive. These customers can derive more value by forcing down prices, demanding better quality, thereby driving up the costs, at the expense of industry’s profitability. Bargaining power increases because of the following:

  • Buyers are few: They tend to play one vendor against another for its own benefit.
  • Large volume buyers: Buyers who purchase in large volumes find such advantage in high fixed costs and low margin industries like telecommunications equipments, chemicals, etc.
  • Standardized products: When the industry products are standardized, the customers can find an equivalent product, thus giving them more negotiating leverage.
  • Low switching cost.
  • Backward integration, if customers find their vendors too profitable.

(2) SuPorterppliers: Similar to customers, powerful suppliers can derive more value by charging higher prices, limiting their quality of services or shifting their costs to industry participants. Microsoft is one such example. It dictates the PC market, and eroded the profitability of the PC makers by raising the prices of the Operating System (OS). It is near monopoly in the OS market because of its concentration than the industry in which it operates. Fragmented PC market is another reason. Suppliers enjoy such bargaining powers when:

  • the switching cost is high
  • they do not depend heavily/entirely on one industry
  • there is no substitute for them
  • they can threaten forward integration

(3) Competitors: Rivalry among the players impacts the industry’s profitability through price discounting, new product launches, services offerings and advertisements. The degree to which it drives down the profitability depends on the intensity of the competition. The intensity is highest when:

  • There are too many players, approximately equal in size, supplying almost same kind of offerings.
  • Industry growth is slow.
  • Exit barriers are high.

Rivalry solely on price is destructive to the profit margins.

(4) New Entrants: New bees bring new capacity and ideas to the industry. They can pose a threat when they aim to gain market share. They affect the industry players’ price, cost and rate of investment. This especially holds good for entrants diversifying from other markets. These new entrants can shake up the competition by leveraging their existing capabilities and cash flows. Very good examples are Apple (iTunes in the music industry), Pepsi (bottled industry) and Microsoft (internet browser industry). The threat of new entry limits the industry’s potential profitability.

Barriers to entry are the key to new entrants. These barriers can be supply and demand side of the game, capital requirements, switching cost, access to distribution channels, government regulations, to name a few.

(5) Substitutes perform same/similar function that an existing industry product does, but by different means. For example, e-mail is a substitute of express mail. Substitutes are always present, but they can easily be overlooked. They can impact the profitability by putting a cap on it and increase the threat to a great extent when:

  • the price-performance trade-off of the substitute is better and attractive, and
  • the switching cost to a substitute is low.

What percentage of valuation is usually in the terminal value?

It depends on how many years we are projecting. In a 5-years DCF, the terminal value (TV) would account for 70 – 80% of the business valuation, and in a 10-years DCF, about 50%.

Let’s take an example. Consider a firm that generates an after-tax operating profit of $100 million. With 25% return on capital (ROC), it reinvests 40% of its earnings back into the business, thereby generating an expected growth rate of 10% for the next 5 years:

Expected growth rate = 25% * 40% = 10%

After Year5, the growth rate is expected to drop to 5%, but ROC to stay at 10%. Terminal value is calculated as follows:

Expected operating income in Year6 = $100 million * (1.10)5 * (1.05) = $169.10 million

Expected reinvestment rate from Year5 = 5% / 25% = 20%

Terminal value in Year5

[$169.10 million * (1 – 0.2)] / (0.10 – 0.05) = $2,705.6 million

Present Value of firm

 (44 / 1.10) + (48.4 / 1.102) + (53.24 / 1.103) + (58.56 / 1.104) + (64.42 / 1.105) + ($2,705.6/1.105) = $1,900 million

Now,

$1,900 M / $2,705 M = 70.24%

You may also refer my article on Valuation: Asset Approach, Income Approach and Market Approach here.


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What is cross-sectional analysis?

Cross-sectional analysis (also known as relative analysis) is a comparison of a particular metric (available in any of the financial statements) of one company with the corresponding metric of another company within the same industry, or against the industry in which it operates in. The objective of such a study is to understand and derive the relationship between the two despite being different significantly in size, or operating in two different currencies. This type of analysis is generally used to measure a company’s performance, efficiency and effectiveness against its competitors and industry benchmarks.

For example, Company A has 15% of its total assets as cash, whereas Company B has 40% of its total assets as cash. Even though the size of both the companies are different (and also assume they are operating in two different countries with different currencies), they are similar companies operating within the same industry, but Company B is more liquid. The reasons for such liquidity can be to acquire a target or to make an investment in property, plant and equipment for operational efficiency.

Generally, analysts and investors (individual and institutional) take into account various financial ratios to compare companies. Leverage ratio, profitability ratio, liquidity ratio and solvency ratio are the most frequently used ones to judge a company’s performance.

What is FCF? How do you calculate it?

Free Cash Flow (FCF) is the cash flow generated by the core operations of the company after deducting the investments in new capital. Mathematically,

FCF = NOPLAT – Net Investment

Where,

NOPLAT = Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Tax, represents the profits generated by the core operations, minus the taxes. It excludes non-operating income and interest expense.

Net Investment = Increase in the invested capital from Year 1 to Year 2. Net Investment in non-operating assets, and gains/losses/income related to these non-operating assets are not considered.

Calculating FCF

FCF = NOPLAT + Non-cash Operating Expenses – Investments in Invested Capital

Where,

Non-cash Operating Expenses are those expenses that are deducted from the revenue to generate NOPLAT. Depreciation and non-cash employee compensation are two most common ones. We do not add back the amortization and impairment of intangibles to NOPLAT.

Investments in Invested Capital: To grow the business, companies consistently invest a portion of the gross cash flow back into the business. Four categories form gross investment:

  • Operating Working Capital: Investments primarily in operating cash and inventory. Non-operating assets (excess cash) and financing (dividends payable, short-term debt) are excluded from Operation working capital.
  • Net Capital Expenditures equals investment in Property, Plant and Equipment (PP&E), minus the book value of any sold PP&E. It is determined by adding the increase in net PP&E to depreciation. Do not estimate the capital expenditures by the change in the gross PP&E since it can understate the actual amount.
  • Include investment in capitalized in the gross investment.,
  • Goodwill and acquired intangibles: For acquired ones, where cumulative amortization has been added back, we can calculate the investment by the change in the net goodwill and intangibles. For intangibles that are been amortized, add the increase in net intangible to amortization.